On Tuesday 20th September 2022, I attended an online Talk about the geopolitics of Kaliningrad at the Centre for Geopolitics in Cambridge University.
To hear the answer provided by Sir Stuart Peach, former Chief of the Defence Staff and Chairman of the Military Committee of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization, to my Q. about Art.5 – scroll forward to 1 hour & 5 minutes.
The Suwałki Gap is a narrow, highly strategic corridor of land about 65 kilometres (40 miles) wide as the crow flies.
It runs along the border between Poland and Lithuania.
To the Northwest sits the heavily militarised Russian exclave of Kaliningrad (formerly Königsberg).
To the Southeast lies Belarus, a close ally of Moscow.
Because it is the only land link connecting the Baltic states (Lithuania, Latvia, and Estonia) to the rest of their NATO allies in Europe, military planners consider it one of the most critical geopolitical choke points in the world.
Russia has explicitly threatened a full-scale military conflict and a potential nuclear strike if NATO attempts to annex, blockade, or isolate Kaliningrad or seize the Suwałki Gap.
Following accusations from Moscow that NATO was preparing an air and naval blockade in the Baltic Sea, Russia issued a formal diplomatic memo directly to NATO member states outlining its planned retaliation.
Russian President Vladimir Putin and various European embassies explicitly stated that Moscow will use all forces at its disposal, including nuclear weapons, to defend the territorial integrity of the exclave.
Russia recently updated its nuclear doctrine to explicitly allow nuclear deployment if its territories are isolated.
The diplomatic warning noted that Russia would launch immediate military strikes against decision-making centres within NATO member states right from the outset of any blockade or conflict.
Putin warned that any Western attempts to penetrate the Kaliningrad fortress or cut off its access lines would trigger an immediate, full-scale war in Europe, threatening to raze to the ground any country that participates.
Kaliningrad is already heavily militarised and hosts the Russian Baltic Fleet alongside nuclear-capable Iskander tactical missile systems.
NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte dismissed the threats as irresponsible nuclear rhetoric reiterating that NATO is a defensive alliance with no plans to blockade or invade Russian territory.
If war with Russia is inevitable, then I wonder if it will start in the Suwałki Gap?
If it does, then I also wonder whether the US will rush to the rescue of Europe?
Above all, I wonder if Burnham and his ministers understand that they are playing with fire.
Because if they make the wrong call in the belief that Russia is bluffing, it will be too late for Europe if it transpires that they were not.
So, does Burnham understand the theory and practice of ‘Deterrence’?
CThis post is written in my capacity as a graduate of what in its day was a top 5 school of Political Science in the UK, and not in any professional capacity. All opinions are purely my own. While I no longer have an interest in geopolitics, I am writing this post as an exception, because I wonder if UK politicians have made false assumptions about what Russia and the US will do if a war does start. Making assumptions at the best of times requires the exercise of highly informed and calibrated judgment. So – triggering a war against a nuclear armed power is no place for geopolitically illiterate amateurs.
I would further point out that it does not matter what NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte thinks. What is critically important is what Russia’s collective leadership elite thinks and believes. Since Rutte – who calls Trump ‘Daddy’, is not a mind reader, he cannot possibly know what is actually going on inside the head of each Russian decision-maker. That is the risk that western leaders – including Burnham and the German Chancellor are playing with, if they cross Russia’s expressly stated ‘Red Lines’.
Comments added:
Note – Google AI – ‘Both Boris Johnson and Radosław Sikorski (former Polish Foreign Minister) were both members of the Bullingdon Club while studying at the University of Oxford in the 1980s. Boris Johnson: The former British Prime Minister was a well-known member of the exclusive, raucous dining club alongside contemporaries like David Cameron and George Osborne. Radosław Sikorski: The former Polish Foreign Minister was a student contemporary of Johnson at Oxford and was also elected to and participated in the Bullingdon Club.’ Note what Colonel Daniel Davis says about those who are provoking a war with Russia – ‘We can do anything to anybody’. Isn’t that the credo of the Bullingdon Club? Is that a coincidence? – see my next comment.
Google AI – ‘The
quote “We can do anything to anybody” is widely cited as the
unofficial philosophy and a defining sentiment associated with the Bullingdon
Club, an exclusive, private all-male dining society for students at the
University of Oxford. While it functions formally as an elite drinking club,
its legacy is defined by a culture of absolute privilege, entitlement, and
destructive behavior. The phrase encapsulates an ethos where immense wealth and
social status are believed to absolve members of legal or moral consequences.
Historically, the club’s activities have reflected this attitude through
several distinct behaviors:
– Deliberate Vandalism.
– Acts of Cruelty.
– Entitlement and Disdain.
Critics and biographers note that this created an environment of extreme
snobbery and a perceived detachment from the lives of ordinary citizens.’
So I wonder – are other members of the UK and European elites who are pushing
for a war with Russia bound together by membership of this club?
Is there a common thread linked to underlying shared interests at the expense
of the civil populations of Britain and Europe – who may be conscripted to
fight in a war?
See also:
Douglas Macgregor: The Truth About Kaliningrad and the NATO Crisis
Europe’s Next Flashpoint / Richard SakwaIan Proud : I Was Arrested at Heathrow!